THE DYNAMICS AND PROBABILISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ICE PHENOMENA OF THE DANUBE RIVER AND ITS KILIYSKY CHANNEL

Gorbachova Liudmyla, Khrystyuk Borys, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine

Abstract

The ice phenomena on the Danube River influence essential on the activity of the water transport. The determination of the calculation characteristics of the ice phenomena of the Danube river and its Kiliysky channel was carried out in the past century (seventieth years) because the modern generalization of the observed data has as scientific, so and practical importance.
The goal of the research is the analyses of the long-term dynamics of the dates of the appearance of the ice phenomena and disappearances from them, of the duration period with ice phenomena, as well as the determination of the probabilistic characteristics of the ice phenomena the Danube River and its Kiliysky channel.
The earlies averages and lates dates of the appearance and disappearances of the ice phenomena, as well as their average and the most duration were defined, the curves their binomial distribution was created and the probabilistic characteristics were determined.
The analysis of the long-term dynamics of the ice phenomena was carried out by the total and integral curves, the statistical criteria of Fisher and Stjudent, and by statistical significance of linear trends.
The dynamics of the ice phenomena and their duration has statistical significant linear trends (except the gauge Danube river - (Kislitsky channel) - Kislitsa village) that are indicative of inhomogeneity of the observations data. However, on the plots of the total integral curves of any significant points of the fracture of the directions of the curves didn't found that indicate on the homogeneity of the observations data, i.e. the absences of the influence of the anthropogenic factors and global and regional change of the climate. The analysis of the integral curves has shown that observations data for ice phenomena does not have of the full cycle. The gauge Danube river - (Kislitsky channel) - Kislitsa village has the short observations series (with 1960), which has well denominated synchronous view with the observations on the other gauges. Hereupon can expect that the presence the statistical significant and insignificant trends in of the observations data have the periodic natures, which depends on duration themselves observations series and presence or absences of the full cycles.